The Information War and the War War
On Memetics and the Application of Force
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted one of the greatest fallacies of 21st century punditry on the evolving nature of warfare. As journalists, NGOs, and Western governments struggle to form a response that will abate Russian aggression, the democratic masses are plugged into a 24 hour feed of non stop posing, narrative crafting, cheerleading, and propaganda. Economic sanctions, corporate divestment, and an onslaught of anti-Russian news coverage are deployed in hopes that all their finger-wagging, belt-tightening, ostracism, and condemnation (“Read the room, Russia!”) will liberate their strategic democracy from the Evil Empire to the East. These efforts can only be successful if they channel enough concentrated energy directionally to match or overcome the magnitude of kinetic forces being mobilized on the ground.
The purely virtual, digital, or psychological is subordinate to the physical only insofar as it does not equal or overcome the force exerted by the latter. What we gained when we unlocked the atom bomb was an awesome power that was always latent, but previously inaccessible, through the conversion of matter to energy. This principle applies at less dramatic levels when we burn fuel to drive a tank, launch a bullet with a spark, and feed soldiers. Each conversion event generates a force in some direction that is more or less concentrated, more or less efficient, more or less dissipated. If the outcome of a war were simply the total amount of energy exerted by either side, then lesser powers would not defeat greater ones, and size would truly be all that matters. This is not the case, however, and David defeated Goliath not because he matched him in size or caloric intake, but because his sling allowed him to deliver an acute force to a highly specific area. Likewise, if an information war is to be effective, it must do so by directing energy in a coordinated fashion along a particular path; and it must martial enough energy to overcome resistances, distance, and diffusion, resulting in the mobilization of material sufficient to achieve victory on the physical plane. In other words, an information war can only win when it has become, for all intents and purposes, an actual war.
This is the dark and inevitable path all this memeing, kvetching, and propagandizing is intended to lead us down. To war. Let us make no bones about it. Despite all the apparent impotence and absurdity of the theater, misinformation, and coverage, a genuine and serious attempt is being made to bring the Western world in lockstep formation to war with Russia. And while economic and social sanctions are not equivalent to a declaration of war, radical proposals like a no-fly zone over Ukraine, taking down Russian satellites, or blockading Russian ships from international trade waters would be. There is simply no scenario where Russia allows N.A.T.O bases, troops, and missiles to be stationed in southwestern borderlands, giving the United States and its allies a totally asymmetric threat profile in the event of a military, economic, or diplomatic confrontation. If the people of the Western liberal democracies can be psyoped into accepting a war with Russia over Ukraine, a war which would serve to profit one kind of empire over another, then a war is what we will get. Bilateral nuclear arsenals be damned. What we should not forget is that should such a war come to pass, it would be in service of international cosmopolitans, bankers, NGOs, corporations, the Davos crowd, and military contractors, not the Ukrainian people, freedom, democracy, or whatever.
It is likely that Russia will win this war. Short of a nightmare scenario where the information war is successful at becoming a “real” war, there is not much of a chance the Ukrainian military pushes Russia back to the motherland, or breaks the will of the Russian government to continue the fight. It may take weeks, or months, but they will take Kiev, they will depose the government, and they will negotiate a peace on Russian terms. That is, if it remains a two-party war. If you’re of the opinion that I’m wrong or insufficiently sympathetic to the Ukrainian plight and you’ve made it this far without hitting unsubscribe, or yet, begun frantically typing a livid response for my inbox, then please note that I’m not keen or dogmatic about taking a position one way or the other in this conflict. I relay this to you in order that we may have some clarity on the discourse concerning war and information war, and the stock one can place in memetic warfare conceptually.
For what it’s worth, I think this is one great tragedy, with the potential to become the tragedy of the early 21st century, and that with some careful consideration of geopolitics, the nature of conflict, and history, one that could’ve been adeptly avoided. I pray for a swift and stable resolution of the conflict with minimal casualties for all involved, and especially for the Ukrainians caught in the middle. God may not play dice, but Western hegemons do.